US Court of Appeals limits Trump’s tariff powers

Historic but suspended decision: tariffs remain until October. Meanwhile, Italian wine exports to the US grow: +16.9% in volume and +14.7% in value in the first quarter of 2025. In April, declining exports signal difficulties at the tariff threshold.

The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the IEEPA does not grant the president the power to impose blanket tariffs on imports. It reaffirmed that this authority rests exclusively with Congress. The decision, passed with seven votes in favor and four against, is accompanied by a temporary suspension until mid-October. This leaves the tariffs in effect until the case is reviewed by the Supreme Court.

If accepted by the High Court, hearings could take place in early 2026. A decision is expected by spring-summer of the same year. In the meantime, the White House could resort to a “state of emergency” or other tools such as Section 232 (national security), Section 301 (unfair trade practices), or Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This allows a temporary 15% surcharge on imports.

The US market remains crucial for Italian wine. In the first quarter of 2025, imports from the US registered an increase of 16.9% in volume and 14.7% in value. This was driven by sparkling wines and Bag-in-Box (+34.7% in volume and +41.7% in value). January saw a rush to purchase: +19.3% in value (€162.5 million) and +4.1% in volume. This resulted from a stockpiling phenomenon in anticipation of possible tariffs.

In April, however, the picture reversed. Exports to the United States fell by 7.5% in volume and 9.2% in value (€154 million). The average price declined (-2%). The four-month period thus closed with +0.9% in volume and +6.7% in value (€666 million). This halved the initial performance.

In 2024, Italian wine exports reached a record €8.1 billion. The United States leads among destination markets, with an increase of +10.2% in value and +7% in volume compared to 2023. The American market represents approximately 24% of total exports. This confirms it as the primary destination for Italian wine.

In the first four months of 2025, total exports from Italy to the US reached $26.10 billion, up from $25.15 billion in the same period of 2024. This is a trend that underscores the centrality of the market. However, it could suffer significant setbacks in the event of new tariff barriers.

The U.S. Wine Trade Alliance, led by Ben Aneff, warns that risks remain concrete: even if the IEEPA were deemed unsuitable, the president retains several levers to impose tariffs. For this reason, the association insists on reminding the American government of the strategic value of imported wine. This supports hundreds of thousands of jobs in US small businesses.

Italian associations share the concern. A tightening of tariffs, now at the center of political debate, would risk hitting a sector already exposed to inflation, logistics costs, and changing consumption patterns.

The political confrontation in Washington will be decisive. On one hand, the Supreme Court will need to clarify the limits of presidential powers in trade matters. On the other, the economic balance of US-Europe relations will depend on White House choices.

For Italian wine, the future in the United States remains uncertain. Growth prospects are offset by the risks of new tariffs. A fragile balance that could reshape export strategies in the coming months.