IN BRIEF
- The 2026 harvest in Europe is estimated at 133.6 million hectolitres, a 4% decrease compared to the last campaign.
- Italy remains the top producer with 41.1 million hectolitres, but marks a 7.6% decline.
- Production is also falling in France and Germany, while Romania and Slovenia show signs of growth.
- EU wine exports are down 6.8%, with significant contractions in key markets such as the United States and Canada.
- Copa-Cogeca calls for innovation and new markets to address the decline in wine consumption, the lowest in thirty years.
The 2026 harvest in the European Union is expected to reach an estimated production of 133.6 million hectolitres of wine and must, down 4% compared to the previous campaign. The figure emerges from the press release issued on November 12 by Copa-Cogeca, which describes a sector grappling with lower yields, shrinking consumption, and difficulties on international markets. Italy remains the leading European producer, with 41.1 million hectolitres and a 7.6% decline.
The total volume indicated in the report is 7.9% lower than the average of the last five campaigns, which stands at approximately 145 million hectolitres. The figures refer to the countries for which data are available in the table and remain subject to confirmation by national statistical authorities.
Drought, prolonged heatwaves, spring frosts, and hailstorms are once again affecting production. Added to this variability are weak demand, falling prices, and still-high stock levels. The reduction in supply is therefore accompanied by persistent commercial difficulties, with consequences for winegrowers’ incomes. Copa-Cogeca links the situation to both climate instability and structural changes in consumption habits. Export trends confirm the pressure on the sector: in the twelve months considered by the report, both the value and volumes sold outside the Union decreased.
2026 HARVEST: ITALY AT 41.1 MILLION HECTOLITRES, SPAIN AHEAD OF FRANCE
Estimated Italian production for 2026 falls to 41.12 million hectolitres, compared to 44.49 million in the previous harvest. The 7.6% drop brings the harvest 9.6% below the five-year average. According to the statement, drought and heatwaves are particularly penalising southern regions. Sicily and Abruzzo are among the territories with the most marked reductions.
Spain, on the other hand, reaches 34.5 million hectolitres, up 3.7%, although it remains 5.4% below its own five-year average. High temperatures are causing water stress and reducing berry weight, but expectations for grape quality remain positive. On the domestic market, however, apparent consumption fell by 8% year-on-year. Weak demand and exports continue to weigh on prices, especially for reds.
France stands at 33.9 million hectolitres: -2.1% compared to the previous campaign and -15.5% on the average of the last five. Drought and heat stress are compounded by the reduction in vineyard area. Copa-Cogeca indicates approximately 20,000 hectares destined for uprooting in 2026, following about 40,000 already removed since 2024.
Italy, Spain, and France collectively account for about 82% of the production reported in the prospectus. Regional differences remain wide: in some French areas, late summer rains have helped contain losses.
ROMANIA AND SLOVENIA GROWING, SHARP DECLINES IN AUSTRIA AND SLOVAKIA
The rest of Europe shows very different trends. Romania records one of the most consistent growths, with approximately 4.6 million hectolitres and an increase of 32.4%. Slovenia exceeds 1.07 million hectolitres, 121.2% more than the particularly low volumes of the previous campaign.
Portugal is also recovering, with an estimated production of 6.7 million hectolitres, up 11.9%, but still lower than the five-year average. The report notes good grape health and relatively low disease pressure, despite episodes of extreme heat. However, stocks continue to grow, while exports decrease in both quantity and value.
Germany stands at 7.3 million hectolitres, down 3.3%. Drought is containing disease pressure but resulting in smaller berries and lower must yields. In the third quarter of 2026, the German sector also recorded sales volumes at -10.2% and turnover at -10.3%.
Austria’s contraction is more severe: approximately 1.7 million hectolitres, 32.2% less. Declines reached 34.8% in Slovakia, 28.7% in Croatia, and 24% in the Czech Republic. Greece, by contrast, shows a slight increase of 1.3%, to approximately 1.7 million hectolitres.
EU WINE EXPORTS AT -6.8%, UNITED STATES AND CANADA RETREAT
Between September 2025 and August 2026, European Union wine exports to third countries reached 15.4 billion euros, a decrease of 6.8%. Volumes fell by 3.3% to 27.5 million hectolitres. The value of sales is therefore decreasing faster than the quantities.
Among categories, Copa-Cogeca reports declines for PDO wines (-7.6%), varietals (-6.7%), and PGI wines (-4.9%). Wines without a geographical indication remain substantially stable. In the breakdown by format, only bulk (+5%) and bag-in-box (+3.4%) grew, while bottled wines (-7.5%) and sparkling wines (-6.2%) retreated. The United States recorded a contraction of 15.3%, Canada 11%, Switzerland 9.2%, and the United Kingdom 3.9%. Growing destinations include Russia (+17.5%) and Hong Kong (+10.9%). The report describes commercial opportunities that are still insufficient to compensate for the reduction in demand in traditional markets.
Trade within the European Union is also weakening: value decreased by 9.8% and volumes by 13.4%, while average unit values increased. Intra-EU trade therefore shows a different dynamic from that of exports to third countries, where the loss of value exceeds the decline in quantities.
WINE CONSUMPTION AT ALL-TIME LOWS, COPA-COGECA CALLS FOR INNOVATION AND NEW MARKETS
On the demand front, Copa-Cogeca indicates an estimated global wine consumption of 221 million hectolitres, the lowest level in over thirty years. After growth between 1996 and 2007 and a phase of relative stability until 2017, consumption entered a decline that has accelerated since 2022.
The European Union today accounts for about 48% of global consumption, compared to almost 60% in 2000. The contraction particularly affects reds and rosés, while basic wines record some of the most marked price reductions. Pressure is transmitted along the supply chain, from sales to agricultural incomes. The Copa-Cogeca Wine working group also highlights the increase in production costs linked to conflicts and geopolitical tensions, along with new barriers to trade and market access. For the organisation, the discussion on the future support framework for the sector must address both market management and adaptation to climatic conditions.
“To guarantee our future, we must continue to invest in innovation, sustainability, and quality promotion,” declare Copa-Cogeca representatives, “diversifying the offer, exploring new markets, and rebuilding a positive relationship with consumers, particularly with the younger generations.”
